Friday, August 14, 2009

The End Is Near

Here's a comment I left at Fabius Maximus (Beginning Of The End Of The Republic’s Solvency. Soon Come The First Steps To A Reformed Regime – Or A New Regime, August 14, 2009) regarding health care and entitlement reform.  I was responding to responding to Maximus's comment:
"Fabius Maximus replies: You are ignoring the specfic example I gave of rationing — spending $36,000 on care in the last year of life. Much of it neither increasing lifespan or quality of life. First, I doubt that people will spend that money themselves — or that most Americans could afford it. Second, experience at other nations disproves your theory."

My response:

Means-testing is coming, but I do not think you’ve thought through rationing or the basis of “few can afford it” with respect to the last year of life expenses.


Many seniors, especially the aging Boomers, have property. It is reasonable to require that people use their own assets before dipping into the public troth. The Boomers have not done a good job of managing their wealth for retirement, in the abstract, but many/most have property to sell. I expect to see some sort of reverse mortgage products appearing for the sole purpose of paying medical expenses (or government liens against property for this purpose, payable when the property is sold).


The idea that one retires and is able to maintain the same lifestyle when working is over. In addition, the idea that people “retire” was a temporary glitch of the last 50 years (not a concept that existed before). Boomers might not stay in the workforce in traditional jobs, but they might have to live with their children (say, providing daycare for their grandchildren). The Greatest Generation will be the last to have golfing/vacation style retirements.


It is immoral to think that you can check out of life and live off your children and grandchildren. It may not be what the Boomers want, but it is what they are going to get. It may require that we bankrupt the nation before the reality of the situation sinks in, but the reality is that Boomers will not have the same retirement as their parents. Bankrupt nation or before, the coffers are empty (and always were, by original design of Social Security) and there is no amount of taxation that will produce the amounts required to pay to the Boomers what they think they’re entitled to receive. The unfunded liability for the Boomer’s retirement years is projected to be 120% of GDP. 100% taxation on working people wouldn’t be enough. The Boomers might whine, but it is their fault. They were the stewards of the government for the last 40 years and they didn’t make sure the government was managing the budgets as they should. The Boomers have already spent their retirements by being the most coddled and spoilt generation in history.