Monday, July 6, 2009

Haunting Projections

I read this piece at City Journal (Daniel J. Flynn, The Fire Last Time , June 24, 2009) a few days ago. As with many articles at City Journal, I needed to mull on it before commenting. Here is the first paragraph:
The bloody scenes in Tehran, with at least 19 protestors killed so far in clashes with government forces, may seem like a repeat in miniature of the violence there more than 30 years ago. The glaring difference is that the protestors who toppled a corrupt, oppressive regime in 1979 have become the corrupt, oppressive regime in 2009.

RTWT.

Mr. Flynn makes the argument that we should be careful what we wish for, especially regarding the revolution in Iran, due to the fraudulent reelection of Ahmadinejad.

In essence, Mr. Flynn makes the case (very well) that we have a tendency to project our hopes on these types of events.  We see what we want to see, and believe that the agents involved, if successful, will produce the outcome we desire.  The 1979 revolution brought us who we have today.  Conservatives, like myself, are projecting on this revolution what we want to see:  hope that Iran will achieve something close to a responsible government, respecting individual liberty, and no longer be an enemy of the Western world.

We're projecting and the reminder was like a swift kick in the pants.

We do this all the time.

Many pinned their desire for hope and change on Obama and have been disappointed. On the other side of the aisle, many are now pinning their hopes on Sarah Palin, believing that she will bring about the conservative revolution they so desire.  They, too, will be disappointed (if she loses or if she wins) because it is impossible for a single person to share completely in another's opinions.

People are projecting what they want to see on Palin, as they did with Obama, and are making the same excuses for her as the Left did with Obama.  An unknown quantity is seductive in that way, but like last night's lover, the morning light shows all their faults.

It could be anyone else, not just Palin.  Anyone who doesn't have a track record with which to judge their future actions will disappoint.

Many were sure that President Bush would veto the horrible, unconstitutional McCain-Feingold legislation, but he didn't. We were equally sure that the Supreme Court would overturn it, but they didn't do it either.

Sarah Palin has a track record with regard to state matters, but we have no idea how she'd actually perform at the Federal level. Would she use Executive Order (or similar) to ban abortion? How would she staff the State Department? We don't know if it would be staffed with competent and experienced foreign affairs experts, or if she would choose staff with opinions and policies closer to those of the John Birch Society persuasion.

If you pin down conservatives on how they think Palin would perform you'll get an amazing variety of responses, each person projecting on Palin their own desires, but Palin, as with any other person who doesn't have a Federal-level track record, has her own ideas and agenda that may not jive with what others want.
No, no, no, no! Come, let's away to prison:
We two alone will sing like birds i' the cage:
When thou dost ask me blessing, I'll kneel down,
And ask of thee forgiveness: so we'll live,
And pray, and sing, and tell old tales, and laugh
At gilded butterflies, and hear poor rogues
Talk of court news; and we'll talk with them too,
Who loses and who wins; who's in, who's out;
And take upon's the mystery of things,
As if we were God's spies: and we'll wear out,
In a wall'd prison, packs and sects of great ones,
That ebb and flow by the moon.

- William Shakespeare, King Lear, Act V, Scene III