According to a survey from National Association of Colleges and Employers, the class of 2009 is leaving campus with fewer jobs in hand than their 2008 counterparts. The group's 2009 Student Survey found that just 19.7 percent of 2009 graduates who applied for a job actually have one.
In comparison, 51 percent of those graduating in 2007 and 26 percent of those graduating in 2008 who had applied for a job had one in hand by the time of graduation.
[Emphasis mine.]
First, let's be careful what we quote here. The report doesn't say "less than 20% of graduates find work," as the ABC News article suggests by its title. The percentage is qualified with who applied for a job.
What could be a remarkable change is the difference from 2007 (51%) and 2009 (19.7%); however, we must still be cautious about making too much out of it. We would need to know:
- If the majors changed dramatically, such as a larger number of Business or Finance majors. Those degrees would have less marketability this year because of the contraction in the financial sector, as well as new business development in a cash-strapped economy.
- If a higher number of graduates applied for work: If there were more graduates in the job market, the market for college graduates would be over-saturated. If, for example, 40% of college graduates applied for work in 2007, 50% of them securing a job would be 20% of the graduate pool. If, however, 80% of recent graduates applied for work in 2009, and 20% found a job, then 40% of the graduate pool found work. The net of that type of scenario would indicate that more graduates were employed in 2009 than in 2007:
40% of 1,000 Graduates = 400 * 50% = 200 employed
80% of 1,000 Graduates = 800 * 20% = 400 employed
If there is something close to the latter above, it could be that more college graduates are employed than in recent years. We do not know that from the report. It is fuzzy reporting from ABC News (because most journalists know very little about statistics, or it would appear to be the case, based on how badly they generally report on such things).
Bryan Hopkins, a senior at the University of Florida, calls the situation frustrating. "You feel frustrated because you feel now that was it all worth it," he said. "In a perfect world, I would have walked right off the stage and into a full time job in my field, but I mean I have the degree now and I am still waiting."
It would be interesting to know how many of those students voted for Obama. If so, it is a situation they helped bring on themselves. If they received business related degrees and they voted for Obama as a way of securing their futures, they should have their degrees revoked (as they obviously learned nothing).
It could be that there are other changes in the market that are causing this (although it is reasonable to suspect that market contraction is having an impact across the board). If there are too many software engineers and business/finance majors being churned out of universities, a glut of unemployed workers would develop overtime, even in a strong economy. Perhaps, just perhaps, software engineers and business and finance majors have gone the route of buggy-whip makers (the report would tend to support this line of thinking, as it details gluts of graduates from previous years). The reporting doesn't allow us to conclude anything like that with certainty, but it is reasonable to speculate that there are too many of a particular type of major on the market, and (we can therefore assume) too little of something else.
You don't always get what you want, and the fact that someone wants a job in their chosen major doesn't mean there are opportunities in that field. Better major choices should be considered.
Summary: I detest reports like this one, as it gives too little information to come to any meaningful conclusion. I link to it to illustrate just how nonsensical these news reports can be, allowing anyone to spin it however they want. That's not science. That's propaganda.
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