PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll, conducted May 7-10, finds 51% of Americans calling themselves "pro-life" on the issue of abortion and 42% "pro-choice." This is the first time a majority of U.S. adults have identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking this question in 1995.
The poll information is interesting, but it is missing a significant piece of the meaning of the majority data. The poll shows that a majority of people lean to the "pro life" side, but 51% are not "pro life" for all reasons/causes.
My suspicion is that recent headlines have caused the shift, with more awareness of the horrors of late-term abortions and some concerns about farming fetal stem cells. Those who are “guardedly” pro-life appear to represent the largest group:
Additionally, a recent national survey by the Pew Research Center recorded an eight percentage-point decline since last August in those saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, from 54% to 46%.
However, guardedly “pro life” is not “pro life.” The person believes that abortion should be legal in some cases, i.e., that "choice” is an option, in some set of circumstances. That would make them, by default, “pro choice.”
It is how we define “choice” that matters. It is a fairly black and white issue:
- Choice: There are a set of circumstances or types of abortion that should be legal.
- Life: Abortion should not be a choice in any situation or any type or abortion.
We don't have any data in this article to give any meat to what that really means to the polling group. We do not have data to determine what "most cases" means to people, or if there a problem with the survey questions to explain that gap.
If, for example, a person believes that "saving the life of the mother" or "rape and incest" are legitimate reasons for an abortion, they might have answered the questions differently from someone who would permit legal abortions to occur, except when the fetus shifts to being viable (able to exist on its own, outside the mother), regardless of the life of the mother, or rape or incest issues. In both those cases, the person could be classified as either "pro life" or "pro choice" depending on how they wanted to appear, but having no consistent basis in meaning.
Asking those specific questions, to qualify the definition of both of the extremes, as well as the middle ground, is necessary to draw any meaningful conclusions, with which to develop a blueprint to respond to the way the citizens want their legislature to respond to the issue.
Question 1: Do you want doctors, nurses and the mother to be prosecuted for murder if an abortion is performed at any time, regardless of any other issues (life of the mother, rape, incest, etc.)?
Answer "Yes" = "Pro Life."
Answer "No" = "Pro Choice"
Anything other than a "Yes" to the above is in the realm of "choice." The degree to which the person would slide more to a "Yes" answer, or the specific asterisks they'd place on it, are what matters in creating law.
You can't infer any meaning from polls unless you cross-check to validate that the definition of the terms that people are being asked to place themselves in (such as "pro life" or "pro choice") have fixed meaning among the polling group.
[Click on thumbnail image above to enlarge and for source information.]
- Legal under any circumstances: 54% to 53%, not statistically significant.
- Legal under certain circumstances: 21% to 23%, not statistically significant.
- Legal under no circumstances: 22% to 22%, no change, not statistically significant.
If only 22% (or 23%, depending on how you read the above chart) believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, then, by default, 77% believe it should be legal in some circumstances, and are in a "choice" position.
All we've done is alter how we define the two camp's positions. How it translates to legislative action has not changed at all. The "legal" position is still in the majority.
Useless.
H/t Drudge.
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