Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Flee and Run Around Screaming

From Riaz Khan and Ashraf Khan (AP,  Pakistan expects 500,000 to flee Taliban fighting, May 5, 2009):
Washington has called for tougher action, and U.S. officials said Obama would seek assurances from President Asif Ali Zardari that his country's nuclear arsenal was safe and that the military intended to face down extremists in coordination with Afghanistan and the United States.

Although the administration thinks Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure for now, concern that militants might try to seize one or several of them is acute. The anxieties have heightened amid the Taliban's recent advances, the officials said.

Acute?  I guess that using the word imminent would be a bad thing.

From FAS on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal:
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads, and Carnegie reports that they have produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons. Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. According to Carnegie, Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.

Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that "Islamabad's nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form" and that "Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly." However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan's assurances about their nuclear weapons security.

Pakistan's reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon.

The terrorist attacks on September 11th raised concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. According to press reports, within two days of the attacks, Pakistan's military began relocating nuclear weapons components to six new secret locations. Shortly thereafter, Gen. Pervez Musharraf fired his intelligence chief and other officers and detained several suspected retired nuclear weapons scientists, in an attempt to root out extremist elements that posed a potential threat to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

Concerns have also been raised about Pakistan as a proliferant of nuclear materials and expertise. In November, 2002, shortly after North Korea admitted to pursuing a nuclear weapons program, the press reported allegations that Pakistan had provided assistance in the development of its uranium enrichment program in exchange for North Korean missile technologies.

From ICT by ANI (Thaindian.com, Pakistan expanding its nuclear capability:  Report, May 5, 2009):
London, May 5 (ANI): Despite the growing international concerns about the safety of the nuclear arsenals in the country amid the expanding writ of the Taliban, Pakistan is expanding its nuclear capability, the Guardian reports.

David Albright, former weapons inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has claimed that two plutonium-producing reactors are nearing completion at Khushab, about 160 miles south-west of the capital, Islamabad.

Albright said commercial satellite pictures of the region prove that Pakistan is expanding its nuclear capability.

Raising questions over the country’s nuclear arsenals in the current precarious situation, Albright said: “In the current climate, with Pakistan’s leadership under duress from daily acts of violence by insurgent Taliban forces and organised political opposition, the security of any nuclear material produced in these reactors is in question.”

The Khushab reactors are situated near the border of Punjab and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), where the military and the Taliban are engaged in heavy confrontation.

Is this the test that Biden was referring to?  Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State and Barack Obama is Commander in Chief.

Good Lord.

Now this is quagmire.